AirBnb landlords are going to first all flood back into the long-term rental market (yearly renewals). Many came from there but didn't do the math on maintenance so migrated to airbnb for "gold". Rents in long-term will drop due to unemployment / increasing supply, then many will become forced sellers. As these hit prices will drop and everyone else will be caught in this wave.
Furthermore, while it can probably be overstated, it wouldn't be surprising to see a fair number of people--perhaps mostly renters because they can pick up and leave more easily--who have second thoughts about city living. Why risk living in close quarters if this may be a recurring pattern and pay a premium for doing so.
Not so much the Bay Area but there are a lot of cities where you can get a lot more space for a lot less money by moving out to even a fairly close-in suburb.
Only time will tell for certain but the preemptive measures places like Seattle have taken appear to be paying dividends. Living in rural Texas is much more concerning than living in Seattle during COVID19.
As for space, cities have lacked space for as long as cities have existed but people continue to migrate for the opportunity. I wouldn't be surprised if housing prices drop from short-term rentals reentering the market as single-family homes or long-term rentals.
>Living in rural Texas is much more concerning than living in Seattle during COVID19.
That may be true but living in a suburban/exurban area outside of the Seattle core might well be better than either for many. I'm not sure how many will ultimately make a change because of this though. It will depend on people's job/commuting situation and how diminished city living seems when lease renewal time comes around.
> Why risk living in close quarters if this may be a recurring pattern and pay a premium for doing so.
Your original assertion was renters will move because the city is unsafe during COVID and that suburan areas are worth the price to commute trade-off.
Two suburban areas around Seattle are Snohomish and Pierce counties. Those "safer" suburbs are doing an objectively worse job of following Washington State's "Stay at Home" order [1]. Prior to COVID, hospitals were closing in rural and exurban areas, which reduced capacity during this pandemic [2]. Disregarding SAH/SIP orders and reduced capacity sounds dangerous, not safer and worth saving money.
As for cost, when enough housing capacity was built in Seattle then the rent stabilized. After short-term rentals are converted back into single-family homes or long-term leases then rent should continue to stabilize or decrease. When I last looked, increasing my commute from 25m to over 1h was not worth the savings in rent and would have required purchasing a car.
It's great you prefer the suburbs and there are absolutely people the 'burbs are better suited. Unless you have a valid reason to suggest people are going to move in-mass from cities to the burbs then I find "diminished city living" mistaken and comical.
I don't live in a suburb and don't really like them. But I am in the orbit of a major city while being pretty rural. I don't really anticipate en-mass movement. A lot of the people already living in cities will just accept whatever restrictions and risk. But I do think some on the edge might reconsider living in places where you don't need to be in elevators or share transit with a lot of other people,
Some people will move away from a city and others will move to a city. It happens. Neither of us expects to see a sizable net movement from urban to "exurban" (rural) areas.
Why choose the exurbs where you pay a premium to drive long distances and live far away from opportunity and medical care? Plus, exurbs were some of the hardest hit during the '08 recession [1].
> But underlying today’s exurban fervor is an uncomfortable truth: The reason that homes in these communities are so affordable is that these areas were among the hardest-hit by the housing crisis and recession, and prices have only recently recovered.
Recessions are very difficult to predict. Maybe it will be some time before a reckoning in the exurbs comes due again.
