I sometimes wonder if people think forecasts are bad because they think of it in terms of: there are two possibilities, the forecast will be wrong, or it won’t. Therefore, the weatherman should be right at least half the time.
Of course, there are countless ways for the for the forecast to be wrong, and only a couple ways for the forecast to be right!
I had a high school teacher (not math!) who insisted that if you guessed on a multiple choice question, your chance of getting it right was 50%, regardless of how many choices there were.
Of course, there are countless ways for the for the forecast to be wrong, and only a couple ways for the forecast to be right!