Oh dear, we are definitely in a bubble, it's just not in the way of total burst.
Back when everybody got into website building, Microsoft released a software called FrontPage, a WYSIWYG HTML editor that could help you build a website, and some of it's backend features too. With the software you can create a website completed with home, newspages and guestbooks, with ease, compare to writing "raw" code.
Now days however, almost all of us are still writing HTML and backend code manually. Why? I believe it's because the tool is too slow to fit in a quick-moving modern world. It takes Microsoft weeks of work just to come out with something that poorly mimics what was invented by an actual web dev in an afternoon.
Humans are adoptive, tools are not. Some times, tools can better humans in productivity, sometime it can't.
AI is still founding it's use cases. Maybe it's good at acting like a cheap, stupid and spying secretary for everyone, and maybe it can write some code for you, but if you ask it to "write me a YouTube", it just can't help you.
Problem is, real boss/user would demand "write me a YouTube" or "build a Fortnite" or "help me make some money". The fact that you have to write a detailed prompt and then debug it's output, is the exact reason why it's not productive. The reality that it can only help you writing code instead of building an actually usable product based on a simple sentence such as "the company has decided to move to online retail, you need to build a system to enable that" is a proof of LLM's shortcomings.
So, AI has limits, and people are finding out. After that, the bubble will shrink to fit it's actual value.
This is fair but it's also assuming that today's AI has reached its potential which frankly I don't think any of us know. There's a lot of investment being spent in compute and research from a lot of different players and we could definitely make some breakthroughs. I doubt many of us would've predicted even the progress we've had in the last few years before chatGPT came out.
I think the bubble will be defined on whether these investments pan out in the next two years or if we just have small incremental progress like gpt4 to gpt5, not what products are made with today's llm. It remains to be seen.
Back when everybody got into website building, Microsoft released a software called FrontPage, a WYSIWYG HTML editor that could help you build a website, and some of it's backend features too. With the software you can create a website completed with home, newspages and guestbooks, with ease, compare to writing "raw" code.
Now days however, almost all of us are still writing HTML and backend code manually. Why? I believe it's because the tool is too slow to fit in a quick-moving modern world. It takes Microsoft weeks of work just to come out with something that poorly mimics what was invented by an actual web dev in an afternoon.
Humans are adoptive, tools are not. Some times, tools can better humans in productivity, sometime it can't.
AI is still founding it's use cases. Maybe it's good at acting like a cheap, stupid and spying secretary for everyone, and maybe it can write some code for you, but if you ask it to "write me a YouTube", it just can't help you.
Problem is, real boss/user would demand "write me a YouTube" or "build a Fortnite" or "help me make some money". The fact that you have to write a detailed prompt and then debug it's output, is the exact reason why it's not productive. The reality that it can only help you writing code instead of building an actually usable product based on a simple sentence such as "the company has decided to move to online retail, you need to build a system to enable that" is a proof of LLM's shortcomings.
So, AI has limits, and people are finding out. After that, the bubble will shrink to fit it's actual value.