This prognosis was the final straw caused me to exit the market as it sounded like Brian wasn’t expecting a recovery in any reasonable time period.
Furthermore, I felt that other asset classes were overvalued when I got into crypto and I hardly think that’s it’s currently the same.
It also turned out to not be the inflation hedge I originally assumed it would be. Part of my current assertion is that cryptos value is tied to retail investors - the same who need to pull out of the market to deal with Very real expenses.
Let’s also give credit where credit is due. Brian may also be using the economy as cover. Give credit where credit is due - FTX came in and ate their lunch. Hats of to them.
> It also turned out to not be the inflation hedge I originally assumed it would be.
This is a common misconception. I've never understood why people have had such unrealistic expectations of Bitcoin's price performance during the initial phase of inflation.
There are two types of people who buy Bitcoin: one that holds it for the long term and the other that treats it as a speculative investment, perhaps even swing trading with it. Access to cheap borrowing and a dramatic increase in the money supply has overpriced Bitcoin as speculators buy in. It has to correct.
Now, as the money supply begins to shrink and access to cheap debt comes to an end, speculators are forced out of the market. They need cash to cover their debts. Thus, as all markets begin to fall, Bitcoin is going to fall with them. A lot of us have always expected this to be the case. Eventually, once the speculators are washed out, we'll hit a floor. We might be there already. We might have a way to go. But there will be a floor.
The correction across all markets we've seen so far is just a market adjustment back to reality. Meanwhile, the debt bubble hasn't really started to "pop" just yet. We've seen record levels of debt lately, corporate debt in particular. Now we will begin to see over-leveraged companies begin defaulting on their debt as they head into bankruptcy. This will be the real crash. The full scope of this is unknowable. But there's reason to believe it will be historic.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has no debt. Bitcoin doesn't care. Bitcoin will just keep on being Bitcoin. At some point, people will begin to notice that Bitcoin is the only thing that's not falling anymore. This will be the moment of change.
> Now we will begin to see over-leveraged companies begin defaulting on their debt as they head into bankruptcy. This will be the real crash. The full scope of this is unknowable
Leverage and cash flow figures are available for all publicly traded companies. The market already knows and already has it priced in.
Decreasing cash flow might pose problems. We'll have to wait and see.
Coinbase has done a poor job with planning and handled this challenging circumstance very poorly. That’s clear. That includes poor social media management.
Many, including myself, admired this company because many of our smartest peers were joining in droves. Thought of Coinbase as their dream job. It is clear that that is no longer true.
Therefore when they say that they survived a crypto winter before, what they miss is that they previously had many that rooted for their success. I hope they hold no illusion this time.
The draft - get sent to war against your will, potentially die, get maimed or get tortured.
This - get the vaccine tens of millions of people around the world have already got, or work remotely (or very worst case give up your cushy tech job and find another cushy tech job).
You can't opt out of the draft. If you work at FB/Google tell your manager the two magic words "I QUIT" and don't get the vaccine and go work somewhere that makes you happier.
AFAIK these companies are still at-will private employers and vaccination status is not a protected class. So they can fire anyone they want including all the anti-vaxxers, at any time they want, for whatever reason they want including vaccination status.
i think the draft is way worse in that you are separated from your family and there is a real possibility you’re going to die.
also, remember that this is not the government. your employer can ask you to do anything (within limits) and invoke at-will employment when you don’t want to do it. I love capitalism!
You raise an excellent point. When you sign up for the US military you give up a lot of your rights. This is definitely bad from a perspective of individual rights, though I can see arguments for a draft being a matter of addressing an existential threat.
Do we as a country feel like COVID is an existential threat? I’m definitely concerned about how we handle future, potentially worse pandemics before we figure out where we draw these lines and what appropriate trade offs are for public health.
Half the country thinks it is an existential threat. Half the country thinks it's a bad flu. About 612,000 people have died from it, that's more than WW2 which lead to the modern international political and economic systems. So yeah, change is happening IMO.
What we're doing now is proving the efficacy of using a mRNA vaccine platform to rapidly deal with a pandemic at a speed that has never been done before. So far the vaccine has worked great. Now we need to establish global distribution chains and make sure that in the event of an even worse pandemic we have options to vaccinate against it.
Society has progressed from such times. There are many things that were acceptable back then that would not be now. If the draft was re-enacted, we would hopefully see strong pushback.
Furthermore, I felt that other asset classes were overvalued when I got into crypto and I hardly think that’s it’s currently the same.
It also turned out to not be the inflation hedge I originally assumed it would be. Part of my current assertion is that cryptos value is tied to retail investors - the same who need to pull out of the market to deal with Very real expenses.
Let’s also give credit where credit is due. Brian may also be using the economy as cover. Give credit where credit is due - FTX came in and ate their lunch. Hats of to them.