While consumer debt is at or near historical highs, it is in and of itself not a problem (broader economic risk).
What you need to look at as well is debt burden ratios and repayment behavior, not just raw totals.
Household debt service ratio (the share of disposable income spent on principal + interest payments) is well below historical crisis peaks (e.g., 2007–2008), suggesting households are currently spending a smaller share of income on debt payments than in past stress periods.
While total household debt is at record levels (~$18 trillion+), debt as a share of income or GDP has not reached past crisis peaks like 2008.
That means debt growth hasn’t outpaced income growth as dramatically as in previous crises.
However, delinquency rates, especially for credit cards and student loans, are elevated, nearing or exceeding long-run highs outside recessions.
Mortgage delinquency rates remain lower than unsecured debt categories, but have ticked up slightly. Because they're relatively stable, it mutes broader systemic risk for now.
"The percentage of subprime borrowers – those with credit scores below 670 – who are at least 60 days late on their car loans has doubled since 2021 to 6.43%, according to Fitch Ratings. That’s worse than during the past three recessions – during the Covid pandemic, the Great Recession or the dot-com bust."
"America’s current subprime delinquency rate is at the second-highest level since the early 1990s. The only time it was higher: this past January. Cars are being repossessed at the highest rate since the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009."
It is nonetheless true that to interpret such a chart as the one the GP posted you must at least mentally discount it for both population (which is +11% since 2008, the last consumer credit calamity) and the value of dollars (which are now ~67¢ vs. 2008). Debt service as fraction of HH income is in some ways easier to interpret.
Anyway, even clicking through to the PDF linked from GP's front page shows that every metric of US consumer credit is at or near all-time bests.
I'm in the gym 10+ hours a week and still use Apple Notes. My only complaint is Apple Notes becomes buggy when the note gets too long (so I started making a new note for each month of the year).
Feature request: ability to have custom excericse types. E.g. today I did dumbbell incline press and alternated between neutral and pronated grip. Gotta find a way to log that. Also support for super sets.
There are a lot of "features" built in to Apple Notes by virtue of being free form / unstructured. And now with LLMs, the appeal of logging things in a structured way is much less.
I wonder what it would look like to create "Apple notes on steroids" (pun intended) -- log your workout the way you normally do, and at the end of the workout use LLMs to apply structure, see trends, insights, etc. That would be cool.
As an aside, the coolest benefit I've gotten from gym logging apps is charts. It's interesting to see my session volume, 1RM and heaviest lifts go up over time. It helps me plan my progressive overload schedule and notice when I'm plateauing/have to up the calories.
Plus it's super rewarding looking at the chart from 4 years ago and seeing how far I've come.
But you're completely right about notes on finding ways to ergonomically record variation.
Statistics like this are a pet peeve of mine. And to see a whole article filled with "x% of people think Y" is not that interesting.
But honestly I'm pretty impressed that ~50% of people understand that social security payments today are funding current retirees, and not future retirees. The fact that only 25% think the opposite, and 25% don't know, is actually pretty impressive.
I mean weed really doesn't smell good. If you're not turned off by the smell, it's a learned pleasure. Similar to how nearly every child will dislike the taste of alcohol, yet after drinking for a while they'll learn to tolerate or enjoy it.
It can be a very overpowering smell. When an odor overpowers, it's harder to discern one scent from another.
A few years ago, I moved from San Francisco to a rural area. Smelling weed in SF was not at all unusual. One summer night in the rural area, I smelled it coming through open windows for the first time. I wondered which house it was coming from and how it still smelled so strong after traveling a hundred feet or more. Then I spotted the actual skunk in our yard.
Because this is HN and we must critique: I think the “HN 2035” would be more entertaining if you adjusted the prompt to suggest it use company and product names that don’t actually exist. (There’s no way HN is half full of Tesla and OpenAI articles in 2035)
There is a reason people like T Swift and whatnot tour constantly, it's how they make money. Weird Al is known for his amazing live shows, there's a reason for it: they make more money.
Ad supported streams in Spotify are counted in a separate pool, and only get paid out of the ad revenue pool.
Artists can of course complain that "they're selling our music for cheap!", especially in the ad pool. But what's worth remembering is that when it comes to setting optimal price points, Spotify's interest is almost perfectly aligned with the artists. And Spotify has a hell of a lot more data than artists (not to mention financial sense, which you probably didn't become an artist if you had a lot of).
> Ad supported streams in Spotify are counted in a separate pool, and only get paid out of the ad revenue pool.
What are the rough rates for each pool? That's the important part here. And how many artists are far enough from the average ratio that the detail of two pools matters.
I'd be interested in knowing that too, as far as I know Spotify doesn't publish details to the public at least.
But I have no trouble believing some artists will be vastly overrepresented in the ad financed pool. Also, there are separate pools by country, and countries have different subscription prices - being big in Japan will be more profitable than being big in India.
Payout per stream is a terrible metric. It's almost like if you ranked grocery stores by payment per gram.
> Payout per stream is a terrible metric. It's almost like if you ranked grocery stores by payment per gram.
CDs are usually similar prices. Per-stream isn't nearly as bad as wildly different products sharing prices.
We could debate per stream versus per minute but I don't know if that's a particularly big effect. It causes some annoyance but it's mostly compensated for already.
Anything that gives different value to different artists is probably going to favor the big ones and just make things worse.
CDs get wildly different number of plays. But the number of plays, whether from a record or from a streaming service, isn't proportional to how glad you are that this music exists and you can listen to it.
The present system favors big artist rights owners a lot, but most of all it rewards owners of music played on repeat, i.e. background music.
Maybe not the best comparison to anything. Swift is known for being an even better busiensswoman than artist and obsessed with having control.
She screwed her record company for profits, not the other way around. Not many people have done that. She's likely making money on both ends of the stick.
When he says "so if I'm doing the math right that means I earned $12" I interpret that as him exaggerating for effect. It's definitely not him citing the pay slip.
"$2 or more per thousand streams, split across rightsholders" seems like an accurate estimate.
Assume an artist (either directly or through a rights holder) makes 1/3 income from streaming, 1/3 from merch and physical albums, and 1/3 from live events.
40m streams per year would be 800k per week. 200k fans worldwide playing 4 times per week on average could get you there. Thats like a decent sized but not enormous youtube channel.
200k fans worldwide would also support the ticket sales and merchandise sales aspects.
Is there a way to export out of one account into another?
I made the mistake of using my company provided ChatGPT account for non-work stuff. It was fine before the memory features came out. But now I'm regretting not having a separate personal one.
Because there are easy workarounds. If it becomes an issue, you can quickly add large disclaimers informing people that there might be offensive output because, well, it's trained on texts written during the age of racism.
People typically get outraged when they see something they weren't expecting. If you tell them ahead of time, the user typically won't blame you (they'll blame themselves for choosing to ignore the disclaimer).
And if disclaimers don't work, rebrand and relaunch it under a different name.
You speak as if the people who play to an outrage wave are interested in achieving truth, peace, and understanding. Instead the rage-mongers are there to increase their (perceived) importance, and for lulz. The latter factor should not be underappreciated; remember "meme stocks".
The risk is not large, but very real: the attack is very easy, and the potential downside, quite large. So not giving away access, but having the interested parties ask for it is prudent.
While I agree we live in a time of outrage, that also works in your favor.
When there’s so much “outrage” every day, it’s very easy to blend in to the background. You might have a 5 minute moment of outrage fame, but it fades away quick.
If you truly have good intentions with your project, you’re not going to get “canceled”, your career won’t be ruined
Not being ironic. Not working on a LLM project because you’re worried about getting canceled by the outrage machine is an overreaction IMO.
Are you able to name any developer or researcher who has been canceled because of their technical project or had their careers ruined? The only ones I can think of are clearly criminal and not just controversial (SBF, Snowden, etc)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc
reply