I think the biggest point that you and others that bring this up is missing, is not just how electric designs gives you higher efficiency and close the gap (as others have mentioned).
The main thing you're missing is that modern jet planes have absolutely ridiculous range, and a huge number of flights use only a fraction of that range. Electric planes don't need to match modern jet planes to be viable. They just have to compete on cost at a range that covers a significant amount of routes. And electric planes have a potential for huge cost advantages.
A related aspect is that electric planes are much more quiet. Being cheaper to operate and more quiet means you can fly smaller planes from smaller local airports to other small airports. You can create an entirely new market.
Electric planes are not going to take over transatlantic flights any time soon. But they don't have to in order to have a huge impact.
I do agree that carbon neutral fuels are important for long-haul flights for the coming decades. With batteries for land transport and short-range ships/ferries and planes and hydrogen for heavy trucks and ships, we might be able to sustainably make enough carbon-neutral fuels for long-haul planes.
> A related aspect is that electric planes are much more quiet.
I'm not so sure! Have you ever heard the sound of twin-turbo regional airplanes in small airports? That sound is not from the turboprop engine, but from the propeller itself. Electric planes do have propellers and propellers are usually very loud. Actually much louder than turbofans!
Making propellers quieter has been an active field of research in fluid dynamics for decades but it's a very hard problem.
Many smaller propellers can replace a few bigger ones. They'll make noise but not nearly as much as huge twin props. Another thing is that electrical propellers only make noise when you need them to produce thrust. Most traditional props produce noise just sitting on the ramp waiting for their oil temperatures to rise or while slowly taxiing to the runway. Another difference is that the high pitched whine of an electrical engine is very different from rumbling of a jet or piston engine. As I'm writing this, I hear a jet plane taking off from an airport 6 miles away from my house. I doubt I'd be able to hear an electrical plane from that distance.
Illustrative anecdote: when you hear a lightplane or ultralight with a high-rpm 2-stroke engine and a reduction drive turning a slower prop, up close you hear the high whine of the engine, but when it gets farther away you hear only the prop, a much lower sound. It's amazing how much of the sound is from the propeller.
Even medium range flying is tough to accomplish with near-term electric technology. A flight across the United States would involve 10 hours of flight time, assuming you did it in a single leg, which of course you cannot. Three stops, so probably 15+ hours total. People do seem willing to take one-stop jet rides across the U.S. now, but the gold standard is about 5.5 hours for a non-stop flight.
Why would a transcontinental flight be the relevant comparison here? The real disruptive/comparitive market is the DC <-> NYC <-> Boston corridor. I'm sure there are similarly busy and small corridors in the EU.
> flights use only a fraction of that range. Electric planes don't need to match modern jet planes to be viable. They just have to compete on cost at a range that covers a significant amount of routes.
You do know plane routes have diversions and holding pattern minimum times set by the FAA?
The main thing you're missing is that modern jet planes have absolutely ridiculous range, and a huge number of flights use only a fraction of that range. Electric planes don't need to match modern jet planes to be viable. They just have to compete on cost at a range that covers a significant amount of routes. And electric planes have a potential for huge cost advantages.
A related aspect is that electric planes are much more quiet. Being cheaper to operate and more quiet means you can fly smaller planes from smaller local airports to other small airports. You can create an entirely new market.
Electric planes are not going to take over transatlantic flights any time soon. But they don't have to in order to have a huge impact.
I do agree that carbon neutral fuels are important for long-haul flights for the coming decades. With batteries for land transport and short-range ships/ferries and planes and hydrogen for heavy trucks and ships, we might be able to sustainably make enough carbon-neutral fuels for long-haul planes.