Don't discount the possibility that figures are being massaged in various ways. One is the obvious lack of widespread testing. Another is the reports of people with symptoms being turned away. Then there are the kodokushi[0] numbers which are a clue to how the government already deals with uncomfortable mortality figures - let alone those kudokushi who may die because of the virus - and a over a million deaths a year (I don't know the monthly totals) in which to hide a few hundred (initially) deaths, especially while still in flu season.

In short, I trust the figures here about one step more than ones coming out of China.

[0] https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/06/kodokushi-in-agi...