Creating a custom system to suit your situations needs sounds great and the thought process was fun to read, but some of the claims lobbed here are pretty questionable.
Specifically, the claim that Dota's matchmaking system is "probably wrong" because the model chosen doesn't match your own findings feels like a reach. Sibling commenters have pointed out how skill variance is important to allow the ELO system to function in games like chess. Additionally, someone else pointed out that the sigmoid function is similar to a linear funciton close to zero.
It seems at least as likely that Acolytefight doesn't have a high enough level of skill expression present in the game to see top players "curve out" weaker players, rather than exponential functions mapping player skill to be useless or wrong.
Does elo suck? Maybe, but this hasn't convinced me.
Specifically, the claim that Dota's matchmaking system is "probably wrong" because the model chosen doesn't match your own findings feels like a reach. Sibling commenters have pointed out how skill variance is important to allow the ELO system to function in games like chess. Additionally, someone else pointed out that the sigmoid function is similar to a linear funciton close to zero.
It seems at least as likely that Acolytefight doesn't have a high enough level of skill expression present in the game to see top players "curve out" weaker players, rather than exponential functions mapping player skill to be useless or wrong.
Does elo suck? Maybe, but this hasn't convinced me.