The other consideration is that the traffic (and submissions) have grown likely 50x plus but the front page still only has 30 slots, and so the 'needle eye' is a lot smaller.
One could argue that a story that makes it to the front page today is much higher quality than one that did so years before.
You get more for 100 points, just like in economic inflation terms, you get more for a consumer electronic that has stayed roughly the same price but quality and features have increased considerably.
> One could argue that a story that makes it to the front page today is much higher quality
This assumes that quality of content is the driving factor in success on Hn or any social network which isn't the case. Timing, attention grabbing title and an engaging subject are arguably more important.
The front page has definitely gotten worse over time. More people doesn't actually imply better judgement in story quality. The moderators have admitted that their goal is to slow the inevitable decline in the quality of the site that comes with a bigger audience; they have no illusions that the site would somehow manage to break the only replicable rule of the internet, that any site will get worse with a wider audience.
It fluctuates but I think overall it’s been very consistent over time and I joined in 2007. Some of the low points where Bitcoin article spam, and various political issues. But, I still see plenty of of stuff from time to time including a very long tendency for random Wikipedia pages to make the front page.
Maybe. Though one should then also account for the likely case that early adopters were more niche and deeper into the content, being part of an early community. When communities grow it attracts all sorts of people which may decrease the quality of content but because there is more a few gems will still occur. Because they would be hidden behind the "crappy" content they need to be given more points to arise the mass. A prime example is Stack Overflow which almost died due to its own fame (for the early adopters).
One could argue that a story that makes it to the front page today is much higher quality than one that did so years before.
You get more for 100 points, just like in economic inflation terms, you get more for a consumer electronic that has stayed roughly the same price but quality and features have increased considerably.