There's a good amount of discussion on this topic in "The Mythical Man-Month". The entire book is discussing the factors that affect development timeframes and it specifically addresses whether AI can speed it up (albeit from 1975, 1986 and 1995 viewpoints, and comparing progress between those points.)
Thanks! That's a great suggestion. I forgot that was in there.
I read Mythical Man Month many years ago and enjoyed it. Time for a re-read. Of course it won't cover the third wave very well though. Would love to see a blog post cover that.