The Russian economy is expected to contract by about 10–15%. For comparison in the 2008 “great recession” the US economy contracted by 4.2% over the course of 1.5 years. The Russian economy contracted by 5.3% in 1998 and it caused an acute political crisis which ultimately brought Putin to power.

This Ukraine war is a calamity for Russia’s economy. While Nabiullina has been doing an impressive job of sticking fingers in the dyke for a few months, pressure continues to build and the crisis doesn’t show signs of ending any time soon. Europe is working full speed on independence from Russian fossil fuels, and US/European officials are continuing to look for more ways to make sanctions hurt.

> And we are running to Venezuela, Saudi Arabia (the good guys this month) to get oil,

Nobody is under any illusions about this. But there’s only so much you can do on the time scale of a few months in a world economy totally dependent on fossil fuels.

a) He has gained significant territory at huge expense. And the gains are almost certainly temporary since unless Russia mobilises their reserves etc. they won't have the manpower to hold such vast swathes of land.

b) Baby formula issue had nothing to do with Russia, was a US only issue and was quickly resolved with Australia companies brought in to backfill supplies.

c) Inflation is partly to do with Ukraine but far more to do with the post-COVID rebound where interest rates were low and central banks were behind the curve and too slow to react.

d) You can't really call this a East versus West situation when countries like Japan have imposed strong measures and both India/China being very opportunistic in buying oil etc but not willing to really stick their neck out to support Russia.

Russia was thought to have the second most powerful army in the world, while Ukraine is the poorest country in Europe.

It was assumed Ukraine will fall in 3 days.

Whether Russia succeeds or not depends on your expectations.

To me, as a Pole, the fact that Ukraine is demilitarizing Russia is a great success of Ukrainians.

Russia will be too spent to even consider attacking Poland yet again, hopefully for at least a decade.

Ukraine looking east to Russia is done. Almost nobody in Ukraine wants to keep relationships with Russia. So there is great hope that now Ukraine will be able to make up its mind and choose Western path to prosperity as did Poland. Mind you, Polish and Ukrainian economies were the same size in 1989-1991 after we pushed Soviet Union to collapse. Before the war in 2021 Ukrainian economy was 3 times smaller than Polish.

Also, the push to transition away from Russian gas has never been greater in EU.

Huge progress? 3 months ago they were at the gates of Kyiv, today they're in no position to threaten Kyiv, and are struggling to nibble away at one small chunk of territory at a time.

Russia does not have time on its side. It's economy is going down the toilet, it's losing the ability to make new munitions, Ukraine on the other hand just needs time to train troops and wait for western deliveries of weapons.

Russia's only chance was a quick win in less than a week, it's failed to do that.

> Are you keeping a diary of what is going through your mind?

I try to note the basics down, but I'm not a megalomaniac so i sure hope he keeps everything down for his legacy.

> He has gained significant territory in Ukraine in less than half a year which is not slow unless you expected he would concur the largest country in Europe in a week (in which case watch less Hollywood movies). The different NATO invasions all around the world are multi year projects, but Putin is delusional? Afghanistan was what, 20 years?

Russia was expecting a victory within a few days. The fact that they've been bogged down and had to give up on 2 of their 3 avenues of advance and the campaign is now approaching half a year, alongside the very heavy losses in men and matériel are indicative of a failure. The facts that they're conscripting en masse from the Donbass, getting museum pieces out of the reserves (like T-62s and Tochkas), have almost no air presence, use unguided munitions, have lost their Black Sea Navy flagship only add to that colossal failure.

Regarding Afghanistan and Iraq, those were multi-year affairs of occupation. The invasions lasted what, weeks-low months? And that's even more indicative of Russia's failure, their army is exhausted and is barely 1/10th of the way to conquering Ukraine, and if they manage to achieve that they'll have to occupy it for which they don't have the resources.

Meanwhile their economy is in shambles, manufacturing and imports of all sorts of stuff has stopped or has to take longer and much more expensive routes.

Yes, Europe will suffer in the coming winter, and yes, we have high inflation. Russia's inflation is worse and their economy is definitely in a worse shape. European decision makers knew full well sanctions on Russia will also heavily impact their countries - that was, to an extent, the whole point of economic cooperation, to make a conflict unthinkable economic suicide. Putin left them no choice, so the Russian economy is going up in flames while European economies are struggling and scrambling to find alternative fossil fuel sources from other dictators.

> I wish I had your unshakable trust in how good the West is doing in this conflict

This conflict isn't between the "West" and Russia. It's between Russia and Ukraine, and the latter are fighting for their survival, with lots of help from "Western" countries.

Well, thank you for sharing your thoughts, I guess we will see.