I don’t agree with them, but this counter argument doesn’t quite work. In a system with x% chance of success, we’d expect most people to fail for small x. But some few will still succeed multiple times.
Throw in that your odds get better the more you’re successful, and it’s classic survivorship bias.
Companies don’t have to be profitable to be successful. A charismatic leader + lofty goals (FSD, rockets, flame throwers) and you’ll get a ton of money even if you never turn a profit.
Let’s not forget the tunnels I’m Vegas btw. They aren’t all winners.
Throw in that your odds get better the more you’re successful, and it’s classic survivorship bias.