I also think Russia will mostly withdraw from Ukraine. What do you think will happen with Crimea? I think that will remain with Russia for a long, long time, like Turkish Cypress. The rebuilding process in Ukraine will take 20+ years and cost crazy 100s of billions of Euro. The damage looks similar to fire-bombed cities during World War II (both Germany and Japan).
And to be real: I am so sad about COVID-19 in China. I am sad because it is preventable but the gov't doesn't want to lose face and allow mRNA vaccines to be imported. I think millions of elderly people will die in China. It is a humanitarian crisis. Sorry to any Chinese people here that will lose grandparents to COVID-19. It is a shame.
Crimea and the Sevastopol naval base are being used as a platform to launch missiles at Ukrainian cities. It's hard to imagine a successful peace-deal that leaves Sevastopol in Russian hands.
Crimea is maintained by (a) the Kerch Bridge and (b) the land-bridge through Mariopol. The Kerch Bridge is very vulnerable, and the land-bridge too. Northern Crimea looks hard to assault, and is very well fortified.
As far as I'm aware, Crimea is nowadays occupied mainly by retired Russian sailors and their families; there has been a great replacement. I think it would be possible for Ukraine to drive Russians out of Crimea, but hard. I think it would be difficult for Ukraine to govern Crimea, and I doubt the USA would back a Ukrainian counterattack in Crimea. I suspect Ukraine will come under increasing pressure to give up claims on Crimea, in exchange for a full Russian withdrawal from Donbas. I think it would be a mistake for Ukraine to yield; Russian sentiment still seems to be strongly pro-war and pro-Putin, and a peace deal isn't the same as a Ukraine victory. I don't think there will be peace until Ukraine is able to defeat that pro-war Russian sentiment.
FWIW, I think the reasonable deal would be for Russia to withdraw from Donbas, in exchange for Crimea. Such an agreement would be heavily dependent on Western guarantees and weapons; and probably troops.
Crimea is valuable to Russia as its principal Black Sea naval base. It's not so valuable to Ukraine. But it is a serious threat to Odessa, Ukraine's principal Black Sea naval base.
I think someone has to win this war; a peace with no victory will just result in a resumption of the conflict. Russia could win quickly, by invading Kiev and removing the government. Ukraine can only win slowly, by reversing Russian pro-war sentiment through attrition. I can imagine a retaliatory Ukrainian attack on power infrastructure in e.g. Muscovy, if Ukraine were given long-range accurate missiles; that might swing sentiment.
I think Ukraine has more urgent problems than recovering Crimea. But I think that fucking bridge will have to go, in any peace deal.
And to be real: I am so sad about COVID-19 in China. I am sad because it is preventable but the gov't doesn't want to lose face and allow mRNA vaccines to be imported. I think millions of elderly people will die in China. It is a humanitarian crisis. Sorry to any Chinese people here that will lose grandparents to COVID-19. It is a shame.