I think you're more or less spot on, but very far with the last one on UK.
The economy is more resilient than you think, especially the City. I have a feeling the war ironically helped. It prevented the finance from moving out to the continent.
While the city may be resilient ( and I'm a bit dubious about that) I think the economy outside of London is increasingly fragile as the past decade of under investment in infrastructure is really starting to bite. The levels of political instability also make the UK less attractive than it has been in the past and I can't see us getting through 2023 without at least one self inflicted constitutional crisis around either Northern Ireland or Scotland.
The inflation situation in the UK is getting out of hand. With Brexit and post Covid, companies are struggling for staff and the prices being charged for everything are eye watering.
I’m not sure how that plays out, but hyperinflation can’t be good.
There are a few other cities that have done and are continuing to do well such as Manchester, but the North East continues to decline, Liverpool is betting that being a Freeport (again) will save it (it won't), Birmingham is just a bit rubbish, Wales is independent enough from Westminster to be ignored and not independent enough to change its own destiny, and Scotland (or the SNP) desperately wants to leave the UK, rejoin the EU, keep the oil, become a wind, wave, tech and finance powerhouse and also have a rainbow sparkle unicorn pony. It's not a great picture.
