This isn't to suggest money supply has no impact on inflation—of course it does. There's a reason Powell increased interest rates, after all. But the simplistic "MONEY PRINTER GO BRRR INFLATION LUL" meme can generally be chalked up to belief in conspiracy-theory nonsense.
I think you're basically saying "yes - of course there's an elephant in the room, but if you just look past the elephant at the larger picture..."
And to be clear - I completely agree with you that there is a larger picture, and we had a very interesting test of what just-in-time supply chains looked like during global crisis, and we're now seeing all sorts of trends that we don't have good insight on.
But also... that elephant is still there. Running the money printer hot and heavy for a few years is almost certainly a major driver for inflation, even if the timing of that inflation can be very hard to predict (markets are absolutely not rational actors) and even if we know there are confounding factors.
As a straight forward statement, it’s reductive malarkey. The Fed, in no way, prints money. When people use that phrase, it’s almost always a good sign they have no idea how money works.
No comment in this chain implied the fed printed money except yours. So lets cut the crap - you are engaging in reductive malarkey right now.
It's a complete non-sequitur to the conversation at hand (that printing money causes inflation) and frankly, based on your comments - I'm fairly certain you have no clue what you're talking about at this point.
Does the fed directly print money - no, the treasury does. Does the fed control the supply of money? Yes, yes they fucking do. The fed is the one placing orders for the money that the treasury prints, and they control how that money enters the market (honestly - not so much through physical supply anymore, it's mostly digital these days).
Again, you’re over-simplifying this. Money creation / destruction is not that simple. There are several ways the money supply can expand. Primarily, banks expand the money supply. The Fed (often) buys treasury bonds on an open exchange, allowing banks to make loans, expanding the money supply. Sometimes, the Fed “PRINTS MONEY!!” to decrease the money supply, by increasing the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB).
The Fed, obviously plays the central role in this. But I’d estimate, thanks to the wonderful past ~decade of anti-fiat crypto enthusiasm, the vast majority of “money printer” claims like we see up thread (by a user with a cryptocurrency-inspired username mind you) think the Fed literally just prints money, and that causes inflation.
Increasing IORB is the opposite of printing money. You essentially take the money out of the economy. It is like selling treasuries.
The act of increasing IORB or selling treasuries doesn’t constitute money printing by itself. What you use to finance those interest payments is what may or may not constitute money printing.
Of course the Fed prints money (and no, it is not the Bureau of Engraving and Printing). It seems that it's you who is actually confused how money works.
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To quote the man himself, when referring to how he was going to solve inflation:
"But none of these policies, important as they are, can substitute for commitments to fiscal prudence and restraint on the money supply."