The problem with Mearsheimer is that he completely ignores the people of Ukraine.
His analysis makes sense if you think people only live in the US and in Russia, and that Ukraine were an object.
But when you realize that Ukrainians are people, and they are choosing democracy and integration with the West -- it's not something the US is instigating -- Mearsheimer's analysis falls apart.
Because ultimately, Mearsheimer doesn't believe Ukrainians should have any choice over their own country. That only Great Powers like Russia and the US get to make choices.
The west has immense influence on Ukrainians, and have pushed for their integration into NATO for decades.
The arguments Mearsheimer is making are not whether Ukrainians should or should not have autonomy. It’s whether they do. And the sad reality is that they don’t, due to their unfortunate situation.
> and have pushed for their integration into NATO for decades
That's not true.
I don't know of any Western governments that have been "pushing" for NATO integration for Ukraine. Certainly not the US. And certainly not "the West" as a whole.
There have been internal debates in the West over whether Ukraine should be admitted to NATO if Ukraine wants to. And way back in 2008, Bush Jr. commented that he supported Ukraine on a path to NATO membership. But that's not "pushing" -- that's allowing in response to a desire from Ukraine.
> The west has immense influence on Ukrainians
I don't know what this even means. Do you think Ukrainians don't think for themselves, or something? That seems awfully paternalistic.
This argument doesn’t make sense now that Ukraine lost the war, now it’s empirically proven that Ukrainians don’t in fact get to choose and this line of thinking is what led to the war in the first place.
Ukraine hasn't lost the war, what are you talking about?
Maybe in a couple more years we'll get to the point where that is clear, or even less. Or maybe Russia's economy will collapse (as it is currently teetering) first, and runs out of tanks and the ability to pay soldiers.
Just because US support seems largely gone, doesn't mean European support is. Europeans have been providing more financial support than the US has. And even if the US won't be paying to send US weapons to Ukraine, doesn't mean Europe won't be able to pay the US for those same weapons to send to Ukraine.
His analysis makes sense if you think people only live in the US and in Russia, and that Ukraine were an object.
But when you realize that Ukrainians are people, and they are choosing democracy and integration with the West -- it's not something the US is instigating -- Mearsheimer's analysis falls apart.
Because ultimately, Mearsheimer doesn't believe Ukrainians should have any choice over their own country. That only Great Powers like Russia and the US get to make choices.