One thing you have to consider is that these other non-hardware dedicated companies have to continuously create new generations of AI chips. You can't sit on the M3, or the Google TPUs, you have to keep making new and better ones. How many companies think they can do this stuff in-house and then eventually realize that they are better off relying on a dedicated vendor? One or two leadership changes and they will cut these initiatives entirely (ask the Zuck about the Metaverse), but Nvidia's whole purpose is to make GPU hardware so they can never truly cut their heart out.
The cyclical stuff was the argument made for semis during the 2010s when no one gave a shit about semis really. I think the game changed, but again, I do operate on faith, or in investor terms, conviction. The main evidence for why the game has changed to me (well, other than AI being the most incredible piece of tech we ever built) is mostly that there are companies that have no business making chip hardware now interested in making chip hardware. That's not usually part of the cycle.
The cyclical stuff was the argument made for semis during the 2010s when no one gave a shit about semis really. I think the game changed, but again, I do operate on faith, or in investor terms, conviction. The main evidence for why the game has changed to me (well, other than AI being the most incredible piece of tech we ever built) is mostly that there are companies that have no business making chip hardware now interested in making chip hardware. That's not usually part of the cycle.