I mean, the presumptive GOP primary candidates at the time were Trump, Trump-lite (DeSantis), about 10 Trump sycophants, and Haley. He had demonstrated a high level of influence over GOP primary voters in the 2022 midterm. It had been (internally) obvious since at least then that he was going to win the primary again. I can't speak to how much of that made it across the Atlantic.
Whether he would win the general was an open question then. In the American system, your prediction should never get very far from a coin flip a year out.
Whether he would win the general was an open question then. In the American system, your prediction should never get very far from a coin flip a year out.