The progression is much less clear when you don't view it anthropocentrically. For instance, we see an explosion in intelligible information: information that is formatted in human language or human-made formats. But this is concomitant with a crash in natural spaces and biodiversity, and nothing we make is as information-rich as natural environments, so from a global perspective, what we have is actually an information crash. Or hell, take something like agriculture. Cultured environments are far, far simpler than wild ones. Again: an information crash.
I'm not saying anything about the future, mind you. Just that if we manage to stop sniffing our own farts for a damn second and look at it from the outside, current human civilization is a regression on several metrics. We didn't achieve dominion over nature by being more subtle or complex than it. We achieved that by smashing nature with a metaphorical club and building upon its ruins. Sure, it's impressive. But it's also brutish. Intelligence requires intelligible environments to function, and that is almost invariably done at the expense of complexity and diversity. Do not confuse success for sophistication.
> last 1 year - even the basic improvements to AI models in the last 12 months are an unprecedented level of change, per time, looking back.
Are they? What changed, exactly? What improvements in, say, standards of living? In the rate of resource exploitation? In energy efficiency? What delta in our dominion over Earth? I'll tell you what I think: I think we're making tremendous progress in simulating aspects of humanity that don't matter nearly as much as we think they do. The Internet, smartphones, AI, speak to our brains in an incredible way. Almost like it was by design. However, they matter far more to humans within humanity than they do in the relationship of humanity with the rest of the universe. Unlike, say, agriculture or coal, which positively defaced the planet. Could we leverage AI to unlock fusion energy or other things that actually matter, just so we can cook the rest of the Earth with it? Perhaps! But let's not count our chickens before they hatch. As of right now, in the grand scheme of things, AI doesn't matter. Except, of course, in the currency of vibes.
I'm not saying anything about the future, mind you. Just that if we manage to stop sniffing our own farts for a damn second and look at it from the outside, current human civilization is a regression on several metrics. We didn't achieve dominion over nature by being more subtle or complex than it. We achieved that by smashing nature with a metaphorical club and building upon its ruins. Sure, it's impressive. But it's also brutish. Intelligence requires intelligible environments to function, and that is almost invariably done at the expense of complexity and diversity. Do not confuse success for sophistication.
> last 1 year - even the basic improvements to AI models in the last 12 months are an unprecedented level of change, per time, looking back.
Are they? What changed, exactly? What improvements in, say, standards of living? In the rate of resource exploitation? In energy efficiency? What delta in our dominion over Earth? I'll tell you what I think: I think we're making tremendous progress in simulating aspects of humanity that don't matter nearly as much as we think they do. The Internet, smartphones, AI, speak to our brains in an incredible way. Almost like it was by design. However, they matter far more to humans within humanity than they do in the relationship of humanity with the rest of the universe. Unlike, say, agriculture or coal, which positively defaced the planet. Could we leverage AI to unlock fusion energy or other things that actually matter, just so we can cook the rest of the Earth with it? Perhaps! But let's not count our chickens before they hatch. As of right now, in the grand scheme of things, AI doesn't matter. Except, of course, in the currency of vibes.