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Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios (2002) (nickbostrom.com)
13 points by edward on May 11, 2015 | hide | past | favorite | 1 comment


Regarding global warming, Bostrom was handicapped by writing this in 2002, but things are looking a lot worse now. I'm not convinced the planet has to get as bad as Venus before global warming makes us extinct. The "business as usual" scenario could take us to +5C or +6C by the end of the century, in which case the planet would be able to support only a small fraction of the humans alive today. Mass starvation will likely lead to war and pandemics.

A great book on the projected effects of climate change is Six Degrees by Mark Lynas, who read about 3000 papers on the subject and summarized them, with extensive references. It's grim reading. It was published about six years ago, and the news has only gotten worse since then.




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